07 / History

EVERY CALL.ON THE RECORD.

What we predicted for every game, what actually happened, and how accurate the model has been each week and across the season.

Winners picked by week bars are each week (faded = still being played), the orange line is the season so far

Average miss by week points between the predicted margin and the real one

Does the confidence hold up? each bubble groups games by how sure the model was; on the dashed line means it was right exactly that often

How far off were we? the favorite's real margin minus the predicted margin; lime bars are within a score

Closest calls

Biggest misses by points

Upsets we did not see underdog wins, most surprising first

Breakdown

R reconstructed: predicted from ratings built only on games before that week · v2 predicted by model v2, saved before kickoff